Possible scenario
Sustained Kyiv pressure
38% Chance
Russia continues using Shahed/Geran drones and missiles to pressure Kyiv while Ukraine faces shortages of Patriot interceptors. The pattern resembles prior waves against Kyiv infrastructure rather than a decisive military shift.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.