Possible scenario
Air-defense acceleration
27% Chance
The attack reinforces Ukrainian appeals for interceptors and short-range air-defense systems. The most plausible response is an incremental NATO and EU effort to redirect available missiles, financing and repair capacity rather than a dramatic policy break.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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