Possible scenario
Certiorari Denied
45% Chance
The Supreme Court declines to hear John Eastman’s challenge, leaving California’s disciplinary judgment in place. This is the most likely outcome because the Court denies most petitions and may avoid revisiting 2020 election-related attorney discipline without a clear split among state courts.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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