Possible scenario
Security Inquiry Widens
15% Chance
A less likely but plausible path is that officials examine whether the affair created any security vulnerability, especially if undisclosed communications or foreign-linked contacts are alleged. Even then, the expected near-term market impact is negligible unless classified compromise is confirmed.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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