Limited Diplomatic Fallout

The most likely outcome is that Washington frames the GRECO exit as a narrow Council of Europe matter rather than a full retreat from anti-corruption cooperation. The United States continues engagement through the OECD Working Group on Bribery, the Financial Action Task Force, and bilateral DOJ channels, limiting market and diplomatic damage.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.