Possible scenario
Enforcement Rollback Deepens
26% Chance
The GRECO departure becomes part of a broader Trump administration effort to narrow foreign-bribery enforcement after the earlier DOJ pause and policy review. This outcome would be modestly positive for some firms with high emerging-market exposure but negative for compliance, investigations, and governance advisory providers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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