Possible scenario
Domestic Pushback Builds
17% Chance
Congressional Democrats, some Senate Republicans, inspectors general, and civil-society groups challenge the administration's decision. The pushback does not immediately reverse the exit, but it raises the probability that U.S. anti-corruption commitments are partially restored through funding conditions, hearings, or a later administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.5%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- TRI+0.8%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.