Possible scenario
Democrats Take House
45% Chance
Mike Johnson's 22-state tour proves more defensive than expansive as Democratic polling leads and the Cook Political Report's warning translate into a flipped House. Hakeem Jeffries becomes the leading candidate for speaker, while Republicans blame redistricting fights, candidate quality, and suburban losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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