Possible scenario
Control Remains Unclear
15% Chance
The 2026 House result is close enough that recounts, provisional ballots, and litigation delay a clear majority call. Texas and California redistricting disputes become central to the post-election fight, increasing near-term political uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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