Possible scenario
Opposition Mobilizes Nationally
20% Chance
Dipke's repeated detention becomes a unifying issue for opposition parties already challenging voter deletions in the Supreme Court. Demonstrations expand beyond Delhi, increasing political-risk perceptions, though the base case remains below a full constitutional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Telecommunications
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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