Possible scenario
Judicial De-Escalation
25% Chance
The Supreme Court's involvement becomes the main pressure valve, shifting the confrontation from the streets to the judiciary. The Election Commission is likely to defend the re-registration order while offering process concessions to reduce accusations of a politically targeted purge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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