Possible scenario
State Pullbacks Continue
40% Chance
The most likely path is a cautious retreat by platforms while state gambling regulators test their authority against federally regulated prediction markets. Coinbase follows Robinhood and Kalshi in limiting sports-event contracts state by state rather than risking enforcement penalties.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-0.8%
- DKNG+0.7%
- HOOD-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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