Possible scenario
Jolly Narrow Win
34% Chance
David Jolly wins a narrow upset by combining Democratic turnout with support from independents and moderate former Republicans. His prior GOP identity helps him blunt attacks in a state where Democrats still face structural registration and turnout disadvantages.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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