Possible scenario
Alert Holds, No Strike
42% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that U.S. and UK forces keep RAF Fairford and other UK sites on maximum alert while no attack materializes. The B-1 dispersal proves to be a precautionary force-protection move after intelligence on Russian-linked drones or sabotage networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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