Possible scenario
Limited Attack Attempt
28% Chance
A small Russian-linked drone or sabotage attempt is attempted against RAF Fairford or another UK defense site, but the operation is largely contained. This would confirm the CIA warning and FPCON Delta decision without yet implying a direct NATO-Russia military exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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