Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly Iran press the Houthis to halt airport attacks in exchange for renewed Yemen-related talks or humanitarian concessions. This would fit the historical pattern of Saudi-Houthi backchannels and would quickly reduce the near-term travel premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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