Possible scenario
Reform Fatigue Builds
25% Chance
The inflation victory comes with weak consumption, strained public services, and political resistance to further spending cuts. Milei’s party has a reform mandate after the 2025 election, but Congress, governors, and unions force a slower pace.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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