Possible scenario
Disinflation Consolidates
45% Chance
Argentina’s inflation slowdown proves durable as Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo keep fiscal accounts tight and the BCRA avoids renewed monetary financing. Real wages begin to stabilize, credit slowly returns, and investors treat the 1.7% print as confirmation that the reform program is working.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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