Possible scenario
Managed Attrition Campaign
38% Chance
Washington treats the 81-aircraft loss as severe but manageable attrition in an ongoing air war. The Pentagon prioritizes replacement funding, electronic warfare upgrades, and operational security rather than a dramatic change in war aims.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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