Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
27% Chance
The aircraft-loss disclosure hardens positions in Tehran and Washington, raising the odds of retaliatory strikes and broader regional disruption. Markets focus on oil supply, Gulf shipping risk, and whether U.S. losses force a larger campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.