Possible scenario
Conditional China Clearance
40% Chance
China permits ByteDance and Alibaba to buy a limited quantity of new Nvidia AI chips, likely under procurement caps, cybersecurity review, and reporting requirements. This fits Beijing's pattern of allowing access to high-end compute while preserving leverage over U.S. suppliers and domestic alternatives.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
Tickers
- NVDA+3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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