Possible scenario
Orderly Acceptance Holds
45% Chance
Trump's statement becomes the operative Republican message after the midterms, with the RNC emphasizing turnout and candidate quality rather than systemic fraud. Certification proceeds normally in key states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, lowering the near-term political-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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