Possible scenario
Fraud Claims Return
18% Chance
If Republicans suffer unexpectedly large losses, Trump may reverse the conciliatory tone and claim that mail ballots or urban vote counts tainted the result. The Supreme Court's September 2026 block on mail-ballot restrictions would constrain policy action, but the rhetoric could still raise short-term uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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