Possible scenario
Ukraine Disrupts Attack
22% Chance
Ukraine uses long-range drones or intelligence-led strikes to complicate Russian bomber operations before the full missile package can be launched. The outcome would fit Kyiv's recent pattern of striking Russian missile and aviation infrastructure deep inside Russia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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