Possible scenario
Grid Damage Escalates
30% Chance
Russia uses the prepared bomber salvo as part of a larger campaign against Ukraine's energy system. The strike causes rolling blackouts and forces Ukraine to draw more heavily on European emergency power flows before colder weather arrives.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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