Possible scenario
US Escalates Sanctions
27% Chance
The Biden/Rubio State Department concludes that Israeli enforcement is insufficient and expands targeted measures against violent settlers and affiliated organizations. This follows the precedent of U.S. visa restrictions in 2023 and sanctions in 2024, but remains narrowly targeted rather than a rupture in U.S.-Israel ties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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