Possible scenario
Israel Acts Limitedly
42% Chance
Israel responds to Rubio's demand with visible but bounded law-enforcement steps: arrests of several suspects, a military-police review, and public promises to curb settler attacks. This is the most likely path because it lets Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reduce U.S. pressure without taking steps that would fracture his right-wing coalition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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