Possible scenario
Smooth Regulated Launch
45% Chance
Moscow Exchange executes the Dec. 1 launch broadly in line with the current timetable, with Bank of Russia-registered custodians and major brokers ready for client access. The most likely outcome is a controlled rollout focused on regulated Bitcoin and Ether exposure rather than unrestricted offshore-style crypto trading.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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