Possible scenario
Sanctions Friction
18% Chance
Western authorities scrutinize whether regulated Russian crypto trading could support sanctions evasion or parallel payments. The base case is not a global market shock, but compliance pressure could reduce foreign liquidity links, stablecoin access and technology-provider support.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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