Possible scenario
Regional Threat Pattern
18% Chance
Authorities view the AJET threat in the context of the recent Riyadh airport explosions and rising Islamic State concerns around Syrian camps. The key question becomes whether these are unrelated incidents, copycat threats, or signs of a more coordinated regional security problem.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.