Possible scenario
Isolated Hoax Resolved
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Turkish authorities determine the bomb threat was a hoax or non-credible threat targeting one AJET flight. Şanlıurfa GAP Airport resumes operations after security sweeps, with limited impact beyond local delays.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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