Possible scenario
Inquiry Pressure Builds
35% Chance
Netanyahu's allegation keeps the Oct. 7 warning dispute in the political and legal arena rather than triggering an immediate government collapse. The most likely path is more testimony, document releases, and competing institutional narratives involving the Prime Minister's Office, IDF intelligence, Shin Bet, and former military secretary Avi Gil.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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