Possible scenario
Coalition Holds Firm
20% Chance
Netanyahu's coalition treats the allegation as part of a broader campaign to shift blame toward military and intelligence leaders. Despite criticism from Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and victims' groups, coalition discipline prevents near-term elections or major policy change.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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