Possible scenario
Signal Not Action
25% Chance
Macron's warning proves to be partly deterrent messaging designed to lock in European support for Ukraine security guarantees. Russia keeps mobilization options ready but delays a public order, either to avoid domestic backlash or preserve negotiating leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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