Mobilization Moves Ahead

Russia follows through on the force-generation plans flagged by Macron and Western intelligence, but the process is uneven and constrained by equipment, training, and regional political resistance. This is the base case because the headline fits prior readiness tests and Moscow has precedent for a 300,000-person call-up in 2022.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.