Possible scenario
Fallout Stays Contained
34% Chance
El-Sayed’s refusal to rank Iran and Israel as threats becomes a short-lived debate clip rather than a race-defining controversy. His campaign frames the answer as opposition to endless Middle East escalation and pivots back to health care, wages and Michigan manufacturing.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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