Possible scenario
Third-Term Ambiguity
18% Chance
Trump’s comments about pretending he is on the ballot evolve into a recurring political device, blurring the line between midterm turnout strategy and 2028 speculation. Most advisers avoid a direct constitutional fight, but the ambiguity keeps media attention high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- NWS+0.1%
- FOX+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.