Possible scenario
Subpoenas And Enforcement
30% Chance
If OpenAI continues to withhold senior testimony or breach records, the issue escalates from oversight theater into legal compulsion. The FTC, CISA, and state attorneys general could also demand data on agent behavior and consumer exposure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Business Services -0.8%
Tickers
- -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.