Possible scenario
Compliance Limits Fallout
45% Chance
Kalshi's termination of volume incentives is treated as a mitigating compliance step rather than an admission of wrongdoing. The CFTC continues reviewing wash-trading concerns, but the near-term outcome is a narrower supervisory process focused on recordkeeping, surveillance, and disclosures.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.