Possible scenario
Broader Market Crackdown
20% Chance
Regulators use the Kalshi incentive issue as evidence that political and mention-based contracts are vulnerable to manipulation. The crackdown extends beyond Kalshi to offshore and crypto-linked prediction venues, including Polymarket.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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