Federal Preemption Prevails

Kalshi argues that Commodity Exchange Act oversight by the CFTC preempts Utah's gambling-law claims, repeating the strategy that helped it in earlier prediction-market litigation. Courts could be receptive if they view the contracts as federally regulated derivatives rather than state-licensed wagers.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.