Possible scenario
Criminal Charges Pursued
14% Chance
Prosecutors pursue a criminal theory involving false statements, conspiracy, or immigration-related fraud. This is less likely than a civil or administrative path because charging a sitting member of Congress would require strong evidence and senior DOJ approval.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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