Opposition Narrow Win

High turnout, especially with expats returning to vote, most plausibly benefits parties campaigning against Benjamin Netanyahu after the Oct 7 failures and the Gaza war. A narrow anti-Netanyahu majority would open coalition talks among Yesh Atid, National Unity, Naftali Bennett-aligned candidates, Yisrael Beiteinu and possibly Arab-list support.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.