Netanyahu Retains Power

28%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

High turnout could also reflect right-wing mobilization and wartime loyalty to Netanyahu’s camp. A narrow Likud-led victory would preserve the current strategic posture on Gaza and Lebanon, but leave Israel with the same coalition frictions that weighed on institutions before the war.

What it moves

Industrials+0.7%
Finance−0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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