Possible scenario
Policy Response Disappoints
20% Chance
Authorities choose surveillance, disclosure reviews, and limits on leveraged products rather than direct stabilization buying. This reduces the odds of a disorderly collapse but disappoints investors looking for a stronger backstop.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.