Possible scenario
Wider Counterintelligence Case
25% Chance
U.S. prosecutors broaden the matter beyond one suspect, alleging coordination with Chinese intelligence or overseas police-linked actors. This would echo earlier U.S. cases against alleged Chinese secret-police operators and dissident-targeting agents, creating a modest risk-off reaction concentrated in Taiwan-exposed technology and telecom names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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