Managed Diplomatic Protest

The most likely outcome is a contained diplomatic dispute: China denies wrongdoing, the U.S. Department of Justice proceeds with the criminal case, and Taiwan quietly raises security around President Lai Ching-te's family. This fits the pattern of prior U.S. cases involving alleged Chinese intelligence activity, where legal proceedings continued but markets largely looked through the event.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.