Possible scenario
Opponents Defeat Measure
31% Chance
The late advertising surge, warnings about entrepreneur flight, and administrative concerns overcome the measure's early polling lead. Wealth-tax opponents treat the result as a national proof point against state-level taxes on unrealized wealth.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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