Possible scenario
Legal Fight Delays
17% Chance
Prop 40 either passes or appears likely to pass, but opponents focus on constitutional challenges, federal preemption arguments, and administrative feasibility. The practical market impact is moderated because collection and enforcement timing become uncertain.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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