Possible scenario
Oman-Mediated Pause
20% Chance
Despite the Houthi rejection of talks before the latest strikes, Oman remains the most credible channel for de-escalation. A pause would likely be informal at first, with both sides testing whether attacks and counterstrikes can be reduced without a full political settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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